Left chart: the relationship between bitcoin's price on a
given day (vertical axis) and four years before that day (horizontal axis).
Right chart: the trajectory of bitcoin's price vs. time.
The radial axis (logarithmic) represents price in dollars per coin.
The angle represents time (four years per cycle).
In both charts, each day is represented by a pink dot and the most recent
day's dot is displayed within a small circle. Price data are
from Bevand and Coin Metrics.
Will four-year comparisons suitably frame bitcoin's price trajectory, regardless of bitcoin's age?
Left chart: the relationship between bitcoin's price on a
given day (vertical axis) and bitcoin's price on the day one fourth of bitcoin's age beforehand
(horizontal axis). For example, at the beginning of 2017, bitcoin was eight years old,
and so one fourth of its age beforehand occurred at the beginning of 2015 (i.e., two years beforehand out of eight total).
1/4 is the same factor illustrated in "Coin age".
Right chart: bitcoin's price vs. time.
The vertical axis (logarithmic) represents price in dollars per coin.
The horizontal axis (logarithmic) represents time elapsed since the beginning of 2009 (in years).
The gray line illustrates power-law growth with
an exponent of 6 and a coefficient of $0.004. It serves as an example and not a prediction.
In both charts, each day is represented by a pink dot and the most recent
day's dot is displayed within a small circle. Price data are
from Bevand and Coin Metrics.
Will bitcoin's doubling of age from ten to twenty years exhibit similarities to its earlier doublings of age?
Left chart: bitcoin's price, expressed relative to an extrapolation one year forward
of bitcoin's historical price trajectory, vs. time. (See the legend and caption of "Relatively aged" above.)
Bitcoin's major price cycles are apparent.
Right chart: analogous to the left chart, but for bitcoin's realized price rather than market price.
In both charts, the gray curves correspond to the gray line in "Relatively aged" above.
Market- and realized-price data are from Bevand and Coin Metrics.
Each day is represented by a small dot and the most recent day's dot is displayed within a small circle.
Can speculators profit by selling bitcoin today and then buying it back a year later?
Left chart: estimates of quarterly bitcoin purchases by users of Cash App and
quarterly increases in bitcoin holdings by Strategy and listed bitcoin investments funds.
These estimates are displayed relative to the total quantities of bitcoin mined in each quarter
(including both subsidies and transaction fees). Sales and holdings data are from the companies'
filings; price and mining data are from Coin Metrics.
Right chart: quantities of bitcoin held by Strategy and all included funds vs. time,
displayed as quarterly dots connected by solid line segments.
What price will balance supply and demand?
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